Oceanside Predictions

The only prediction I can make about the race this weekend is that it is going to be completely unpredictable.

I had a moment of confidence the other day after a good ride, but I'm back in stressing-out mode. I'm doing a half-ironman in two days. It kind of gets eclipsed by Coeur d'Alene in June, but I don't want to sell this race short: it's kind of a big deal. It's the kind of race that people carefully train and diet for, with meticulous precision. So what's my race strategy? I'm basically winging it.

I have no idea if my knee will hold out or if my under-trained legs will find the stamina to do well. And I'm currently about 5 pounds heavier than my typical race-weight. (No, it's not added muscle. Trust me.) A month ago, my plan was to do Oceanside in 7 hours. (That would be a staggering 90 minutes less than the half-iron I did last year, but that was Wildflower which had all sorts of issues of its own.) I think that was a conservative estimate, but it would be a nice steady pace to do 12 weeks before doing a full Ironman. I think I'm still going to shoot for the 7 hours. Had I been able to keep up my training the past 3 weeks it would have been very doable; now I might have to struggle with it. Like I said, I just have to wing it. And if it takes me 8 hours, so be it.

Here's a goal: At Wildflower, I finished the swim with the group that started 3 waves after I did. For Oceanside, I'd like to finish with the group starting TWO waves after me. If I can do that, I'll be off to a great start.

There is one good thing about all of this. When I first signed up for the race, I said there would be a lot of pressure on it. This race would set the tone for the rest of Ironman training: if I did well, it would be a much-needed confidence booster. If I did poorly, then I would get completely freaked out and be even more nervous about Ironman. Now however, if I do well, great. If I bonk it, "not my fault... I was injured." I can't lose.

Bonus Gripe: This is a USAT race. According to the rules, participants race in their age-group based on their age on Dec. 31, 2008. Which means, for the first time, I will be racing as a 40-year old. Swell.