14:27

(** Note: I wrote this post several days before the race, but my hotel had terrible WiFi and I couldn't post it. **)

So many racers will say "well I just want to finish the race, the time doesn't really matter." Blah blah blah. I think it's ridiculous not to have a goal in mind, or at least an estimate as to when you're going to finish. If nothing else, it makes things easier on the spectators so they'll know when to look for you.

As for me, I'm shooting to finish Kona in 14:27. Why? Because I did Wisconsin in 14:28. (Coeur d'Alene was 14:45.) It would be sweet to PR in Hawaii. Now I know that people generally feel "ohhhhh Wedgie... Kona is hot and humid and windy. It's not really the kind of race conditions to worry about a PR." But my feeling is that it's the World Championships, and you might as well go big or go home.

Honestly? 14:27 will be tough, but this is how it would happen:

The swim is a huge wildcard. I've never swam more than 1.2 miles in the ocean. And all of my open water ocean/lake swimming has been done in a wetsuit. So I really have trouble estimating what my time will be here. My other Ironman times are 1:39 and 1:33, so I think I might be right around there. I believe my swimming has improved, but the currents and swells could be rough. So it's a wash, so to speak. Let's say 1:40. 1:30 is incredible, 1:50 is not so good. (** Actual swim time 1:34:22 **)

No wetsuit, no bike gloves, smaller transition area... I'd like to have a combined T1/T2 time under 10 minutes. That isn't fast by any means, but it's how I roll. Besides, I like peeing in transition. (** Total transition time 8:46 **)

The bike will be interesting. Let's forget about the winds for a moment: I think I could do a 6:30. But if I do 6:30, I will pay for it on the run. So I would like to do the bike in 7 hours. This would be my slowest Ironman bike time, but I think it's the smarter move.

Unfortunately, we can't forget about the winds. I know that everyone hates the wind but it really REALLY gets to me. Honestly, I am OK with long climbs and I don't have a problem with heat. But wind is Kryptonite to me. It makes me give up emotionally. I just have to hope for no wind or, more likely, hope that I can ride smartly into the wind. In other words, don't try to maintain the same pace into the headwinds and conserve energy instead. (** Bike time 6:51:01 **)

No matter what happens, I really want to have a good run. My run fell apart in Coeur d'Alene and I did 6 hours. My run fell apart in Wisconsin and I did 6 hours. I don't care if I cross the finish line at midnight, I want to do 5:30 in the run. (FYI: because of time cut-offs, the slowest run you can have with a 17-hour finish is 6:30. But you know what I mean.)

I definitely put a lot more effort into my run training than the swim or the bike. I did a lot more mileage. I worked on my pacing. And I always, always ran in the heat. If I have another 6-hour marathon, I'll be disappointed. (I'll still be very very happy at the finish line, no need to worry about that!) (** Run time 5:26:45 **)

So that puts me finishing around 14:20 and gives me a few extra minutes in the swim if I need them. And it's still very possible that the winds or other factors could give me a 7:30 bike. I'll adjust my race strategy during the course and see what happens. But I am going into the race with the idea of getting a PR.

Oh and 14 hours would be a wet dream for me.

(** I should have been more specific. What I meant was that BEATING 14 hours would be a wet dream, i.e. 13:59:59. My final time was 14:00:51, so I didn't have to wet myself. **)