Saturday, May 24, 2008

Ironplan

Yes, I am this compulsive.

To try and predict a reasonable Ironman finishing time, for each leg I have a good time, a great time, and a "wow did I really do that?" time. Note that there is no such thing as a "bad" time for each leg. Anything that gets me to the finish line within 17 hours is good. But I'm trying to narrow it down a bit.

I will spend 15 minutes combined in the 2 transitions. Possibly 20. You can lecture me all you want about how if I just planned ahead or got organized I could have better transitions. It will not happen. Anybody who has seen me on race day knows that I need the stress of transition to get my adrenaline going.

I'm not a fast swimmer. 90 minutes would be a little more than double my California 70.3 time which would absolutely thrill me, but I expect it will take a little longer. And if it takes a lot longer, so be it.

If the weather conditions were good and I went all out, I have a fantasy of doing a sub-6-hour bike. But it would kill me and I wouldn't have much left over for the run. I think the smart move is to try to do a 6:30-6:45 bike. If takes me 7 or 8 hours, that's OK.

I will crash during the marathon. Physically and mentally. It's what I do.  A big problem for me is that I don't take in enough calories during a race and then I just run out of steam. I'm hoping that I can force myself to eat more during the bike and run (mostly liquid calories) and then see how my legs react. My last marathon was about 4:30. I think I have a 5:30 Ironman marathon in me, but I think reality is going to hit pretty hard fairly early during the run and so my money is going on 6 hours.

So these are the different scenarios (click for slightly larger version):

My best guess is I'll take the golden path and come in at 14:45.

7 Comments:

Blogger Cliff said...

Neoprene Wedgie,

My goal on the bike wasn't too much about time. It was to drink and eat as much as I can. In my case, it is about 320 calories/hr and 1L of water. I just ride slow enough and keep my HR low enough for that.

Base on your plan, it looks like you will make it pass the bike cut off even if you are slower than plan. If that's the case, i would focus on stuffing your face on the bike so you have enough fuel for the run :)

3:50 PM  
Anonymous Leto II said...

Your golden path is only 14:45?

My Golden Path took millenia! You can look it up:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Path

7:03 PM  
Blogger Steve Stenzel said...

Wow, that's a bit OCD. Nice chart though....

1:06 PM  
Blogger Bigun said...

Thats a serious OCD plan! I love it! Looks like you and me will seeing a LOT of each other out there. If all goes well, that is!

4:38 PM  
Blogger Iradoman said...

dude you gotta do a sub 11 or die! remember the axis of evil is watching

11:11 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jon Cryer is watching too! Bet you'll do better than you obsess

5:09 PM  
Blogger Aaron said...

I'd be stuffing my face on the bike, and did so last year at IMLP. Bars, oranges, bananas - it was all good.

On the run it's all Coke and chocolate chip cookies. Diet shmiet. Whatever stays down.

7:14 PM  

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