Time Change?

I've been predicting a 15:15 finish time in Wisconsin. If you're in Vegas this weekend, it's probably not a bad bet. But I'll also give a more optimistic outlook of what could happen this weekend.

If I grab hold of someone's foot and have them tow me maybe I can do a 1:30 swim. But truly, anything under 1:45 will be a gift. With transitions, I'm still saying 2:00 for swim+T1+T2.

I know Wisconsin is a hilly bike course, but that just means more opportunities to zoom downhill, right? And for the uphills, I'm a decent climber and am even better on my new bike. So although I'm saying 7:00 for the bike, I think I can pull off a 6:30.

As for the run, I need to let go of the fantasy 5-hour Ironman Marathon I've thought about for 2 years. Rather than starting out at 10-minute miles trying to build a buffer for when i start slowing down, I need to start slow and keep a steady 12:30 minute-mile pace. That's a 5:30 marathon with the option for a negative split to bring it down to maybe 5:15.

2:00 + 6:30 + 5:30 = knocking on the door of 14 hours, which would be 45 minutes faster than Coeur D'Alene. If my nutrition holds up, the math works out.