15:15

One month before Ironman Coeur d'Alene, I predicted I would finish in 14:45; my actual time was 14:45:39. Part of my accuracy was a self-fulfilling-prophecy; I was able to adjust my race to meet my time goals. But I definitely did a pretty good darn-tootin job of predicting the race. It is now one month before Ironman Wisconsin, so I figured I should run the numbers again.

First, the fantasy:

Joe the Trainer had me do a lot of swim-specific exercises so my back/shoulders should be strong this year. And the water temperature will be 5-10 degrees warmer than it was in AntarcticaIdaho. I swam a slow 1:40 in Coeur d'Alene, so I think I could knock 10 minutes off the swim and go 1:30.

Joe the Trainer had me do a lot of leg work and I've noticed I am stronger on bike climbs than I have been. But my secret weapon is my new bike; it's 4-5 pounds lighter than my old one, and is just all-around more efficient than my old one. I did Idaho in 6:56; it's possible I could do 6:30 in Wisconsin (which is only a 5% improvement.)

For years I've had this dream of running 10-minute miles during an entire marathon and I just need to give that up. If I hold back, conserve my energy and shoot for 11.5-minute miles, that puts me at a 5-hour finish time. I did Coeur d'Alene in 6 hours, so that would be a HUGE improvement. But my stomach got sick during the marathon and that killed my run. If I had eaten better, I'm sure I could have done 5:30. SOMETHING will go wrong so I think 5:00 is unlikely, but I still think 5:30 is doable.

Let's just say 20 minutes for transitions. That puts me at a 13:50 finish time, 55 minutes faster than last year.

Now, the reality:

I haven't been swimming much. Leading up to Coeur d'Alene, I did a lot of ocean swimming which was great training. This year, not so much. I still can't swim in a straight line. Any strength advantages will be eaten away by the lack of hours I spent in the pool, and I suspect I will actually have a slower swim this time. 1:45.

Wisconsin is a much hillier course than Coeur d'Alene. I did a fair amount of mountain climbing this year, but most of that was months ago. I'm not sure how much of that I still have in me. I also don't know how much the new bike can compensate for the tougher course. I think 7 hours in Wisconsin would actually be quite an improvement over 7 hours in Idaho. So let's say 7:00.

I would really, really like to improve my run this time. And I have been pretty good with keeping up with my running schedule. So I'll stick with a 5:30 run.

That comes out to 14:35, ten minutes faster than Coeur d'Alene.

Ah, but here's the big X-factor. And this is not sandbagging, nor making excuses... but I'm just not in "The Zone" for Wisconsin. It's just not clicking. I fear that if I'm the bike and I realize I'm slowing down to a 7:30 or 8:00 pace, I might be like "eh, whatever." And that's a dangerous attitude when doing an Ironman. I think I may psyche myself down a bit, and it will cost me another half-hour.

So I'm saying a 15:15 finish time for Wisconsin. That isn't a goal, nor really a prediction even... It's just what my gut tells me.